This draft is one of the stranger drafts I can remember. Very heavy on game changing running backs, limited on can’t miss quarterbacks and woefully short on top notch defensive tackles and offensive tackles with first round grades. As you go through the list of players that are available, it is quite evident that cornerback and linebacker/rush ends are the strength of this draft, but even those guys after a certain group could be swapped out with any player in the 2nd through 5th rounds and you could argue that a team made the right decision based on certain film.
Husker draftees could be short this year. I still think someone will take a chance on Nathan Gerry and Cethan Carter is certainly undervalued from his time at Nebraska, although his injury history will certainly cause him to fall in the draft if he is drafted at all. Jordan Westerkamp would be next bet on being drafted, I simply can’t see how he doesn’t make an NFL roster this fall if he is healthy. I watch enough of the NFL to know that plenty of teams can use someone that rarely drops the ball…hint, hint, Chicago. If Nebraska can keep the streak of multiple players drafted alive this year, they should start to see more players moving into the NFL as the Mike Riley era moves forward.
That’s it, that’s the list. Remember, this is how I would draft…history says I’m about as accurate as most GMs, which isn’t saying much.
- Cleveland Browns – Myles Garrett DE – Cleveland Browns….they have a lot of problems. The good thing is, when you tear it down and you pull in a sizable chunk of draft picks like the Browns have, you hopefully bare the fruits of labor and build a foundation that will bring you out of the doldrums. With the first pick in the draft, you would normally take a quarterback, but honestly, the home run isn’t in this draft, that is probably next season. In this case, you fill as many holes as you can and go from there. Garrett is an elite athlete at a position of need. He may not be a guaranteed All Pro, but at least you give yourself a chance with a player than can get to the quarterback. Take a chance on a QB down the road, don’t waste this pick on someone you can get at 12, or even move up.
- New York Jets (trade with SF @ 6) – Mitchell Trubisky QB – I’ve never posted a trade in all my years of doing a first round mock draft, but I’m doing one this year. I think the Jets, forever in need of a quarterback, need to jump up and take Trubisky. I’m not sold that he is a sure thing, but what I do know is athletically he looks the part and physically he has what you want in the NFL. You can’t win big without a great QB, if I’m the Jets, I let it all hang out and go grab this kid. Worst case scenario, you still suck and you go get another one in two years.
- Chicago Bears – Marshon Lattimore CB – Where to begin. The Bears are my favorite team, so I’m always a little jaded when they miss obvious selections on the board. Last year, I couldn’t believe they passed on Laremy Tunsil when they had the chance and they have a bad habit of picking players to play positions in the NFL that they didn’t play in college. The Bears need a quarterback, but even if Trubisky is available, I feel like Deshaun Watson would fit the Bears better. All that being said, they have holes everywhere, this is too early to take Watson and I’ve talked myself in and out of it multiple time. They should take the best corner in the draft and either try to move back up in the first if Watson free falls, or take someone like Brad Kaaya or Chad Kelly in a later round.
- Jacksonville Jaguars – Jonathan Allen DT – Now that Tom Coughlin is back in the organization, I expect the Jaguars to finally get back on track. They have a number of needs, and this is a good spot to get an immediate starter. One could argue that they need a RB like Dalvin Cook or Leonard Fournette, or they could go with O.J. Howard and lock down the TE spot for the foreseeable future. I have a hunch though, that they will go with the best DT in the draft. Allen was great at Alabama and Coughlin knows having an anchor in the middle can help solidify the defense. Jacksonville can probably still get a good running back later in the draft and this is a super deep TE group, so both needs can be met later on. Allen has no comparison to be had later.
- Tennessee Titans –– Jamal Adams S – The Titans can afford to gamble a little bit here and have the option to go in a number of directions. If I’m the Titans, I look to trade down to a QB needy squad like the 49ers or Browns and acquire a later pick if I can get one. That being said, at this point and time, why not add the best safety in the draft to a shaky secondary. The Titans can afford to take the best player available at this point, so O.J. Howard could get a look, but I’d stick with Adams.
- San Francisco 49ers (trade with NYJ @ 2) – Solomon Thomas DE – The 49ers are in full rebuild mode and if they can trade down and acquire a few picks, they need to do it. It would make sense if they felt like taking a safety like Malik Hooker to make plays, but they also need a pass rusher that can get to the QB. I don’t think they would take a quarterback at this point, I don’t have another QB with a grade high enough to take here. Thomas is a local kid and should provide them with much needed depth on the DL and can play multiple positions.
- Los Angeles Chargers – Malik Hooker S – Having someone to help cover in the secondary is paramount for the Chargers, as their safety position seems to be an empty hole right now. Joey Bosa was a big pickup of them last season and they could take Derrick Barnett to bookend him with and make life miserable for AFC west opponents. I’m tempted to go with the pass rusher, but they need a lot of help with their secondary, so I’d take Hooker and hope that his college tape transfers into the NFL.
- Carolina Panthers – Leonard Fournette RB – With no immediate help at defensive tackle worth taking this high, the first of a strong group of running backs will start to come off the list. Whatever you think of Fournette and his career at LSU, he played on teams that could rarely pass the ball well. This kid has the tape that most players dream about. You could argue that this is way too high to take a running back, but with the success of Ezekiel Elliot from the year before and the need to take pressure off from Cam Newton, why not fill that spot for the better majority of Newton’s prime. He can learn from Jonathan Stewart and doesn’t have to be the entire workhorse from day one. My top receiver in the draft is Mike Williams, but I think they need to go with the RB.
- Cincinnati Bengals – Derek Barnett DE – When the Bengals missed the playoffs for the first time in 6 seasons Andy Dalton was basically under ambush as his offensive unit resembled a M.A.S.H. unit last season. Hopefully AJ Green can come back and be his normal self and Tyler Eifert can stay healthy. They need a tackle on offense, or another linebacker, but with Reuben Foster’s recent drop due to background issues, Barnett is a safe pick at this point. Barnett had the most productive college career of any of the DEs available and should continue to be a pain in the QB rear end in the NFL.
- Buffalo Bills – Mike Williams WR – Tyrod Taylor is going to be a decent quarterback in this league or he isn’t, but one thing is for certain, if they get him some help, he may have a chance at the former. Williams, as stated above, is my number one receiver on the board and he would give immediate help to the Bills offense. This in turn should allow LeSean McCoy to continue to have success. O.J. Howard would help at TE, and Reuben Foster should again be in the conversation about right here, but I think they will pass. Take Williams and go get a CB and a TE later in a draft that has depth at those positions.
- New Orleans Saints – Carl Lawson DE – The Saints could go a number of directions on defense or they could just do the usual and take a skill position guy like O.J. Howard and surprise us all. For me, it comes down to either a lockdown corner from up the road, Tre’Davious White from LSU or a true pass rusher like Carl Lawson. It’s a tough call for me, but I’m leaning toward Lawson, simply because he can be an overpowering player, and I think you can grab a corner deeper in the draft that will still be a legitimate player in 2017 if they choose too.
- Cleveland Browns – Deshaun Watson QB – You can only play musical chairs for so long at the quarterback position. Cleveland needs someone with confidence to come in and lead this team. I love Watson, he is my favorite QB in this draft, although I don’t like that he throws a lot of picks, he plays the best when the money is on the table. I love that. You took the best player in the draft at number one, follow it by drafting a franchise QB at 12. If the Bears pass on Watson, which isn’t a sure thing, he should be available to take at 12. That is, if someone doesn’t jump back up to get him before this point?
- Arizona Cardinals – Reuben Foster ILB – The Cardinals went from a Super Bowl contender to an also ran overnight in 2016. They have weaknesses at QB, CB and inside linebacker. I have no other quarterbacks with a first round grade, other than Trubisky and Watson. Should they trade up to get either, that would make a lot of sense, but if they choose to stay put, why not pick the best inside linebacker in the draft? I don’t care about Foster’s “issues” the kid simply makes plays. You could argue that he is a product of the system at Alabama, but his size and athleticism are very rare. Take a project QB in the next couple of rounds, take a starter on your defense in the first round.
- Philadelphia Eagles – Tre-Davious White CB – The Eagles added their cornerstone piece last year when they drafted Carson Wentz at QB. They addressed his needs for help at WR by adding Alshon Jeffrey and Torrey Smith. Now they must address the loss at cornerback and can do that by drafting the versatile White. Christian McCaffrey is also a logical choice at this point, because the Eagles could use some new blood at running back and McCaffrey is a versatile piece that would fit nicely, but you have to be able to cover Odell Beckham and Dez Bryant in the NFC East, so I would stick with White.
- Indianapolis Colts – Dalvin Cook RB – Andrew Luck has been beat up the last few years and the Colts defense hasn’t provided much in the way of help for the offense. However, I think Cook could answer a lot of questions for the Colts. He can take pressure off of Luck, allow the defense to stay off the field, balance out their offense and provide a home run hitter all with the same player. I love Cook almost as much as Fournette and would draft him in a heartbeat. Some people question his character, but I don’t worry about that. Some guys can just flat get the job done and Cook is one of them. Go get a pass rusher in the next round, there are just too many flags on the guys still available to take them over one of the best playmakers in the draft.
- Baltimore Ravens – Tim Williams OLB – I start to question my sanity here. Corey Davis is still on the board along with Christian McCaffrey. The speedster John Ross is also out there, although I question if he is a first round talent. The Ravens could use help at RB and WR, but this Williams kid is a lightning bolt and for some reason, I think he can provide a pass rush for the Ravens that they have been missing the last couple of years. I don’t know if this is the right pick or not, but it seems like a great fit and sometimes that’s what you have to do.
- Washington Redskins – Christian McCaffrey RB – When you get to this point in the draft, you start to see options that either come with some off the field issue or on the field performance limitations. I’m big on going with the best player on the board if you can’t find an immediate fit somewhere on your team. It’s clear that the game of chicken going on with Kirk Cousins and crazy front office mess with the Skins are big distractions for this team. They could definitely use a WR like Corey Davis or even John Ross to replace DeSean Jackson, but McCaffrey is sitting here staring you in the face. Take the best player available, give Cousins a security blanket and address the defensive needs later with limited players that are probably closer to having a second or third round grade, rather than reach at this point.
- Tennessee Titans – Corey Davis WR – Having already selected a day one starter at safety, this time the Titans can lock down a day one starter at WR for Marcus Mariotta. Davis may not be the speed demon that John Ross is, but he is by far the better receiver of the two. The could go another direction and lock down one of the left over speed rushers like Jordan Willis or Haason Reddick, or possibly take O.J. Howard to play TE.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jordan Willis DE – Having all the top running backs off the board, Tampa instead will focus on increasing their pass rush with Willis. Willis is a big motor guy that will help the Buccs get to the quarterback. I’m hesitant to pass on Howard one more time, but they have already addressed their passing needs with DeSean Jackson and can focus on making their defense much better to make the team more complete. You can take a back or a tight end in the later rounds.
- Denver Broncos – Ryan Ramczyk OT – Denver needs someone to keep pressure off of the quarterback, no matter who it may be. Ramczyk is the only tackle with a first round grade at tackle in this draft which is crazy after last season’s plethora of tackles that were drafted. I’m big on building your team from the inside out and while Denver could use some help on defense, they must get the best blocker on the edge in this draft if he falls this far.
- Detroit Lions – Jourdan Lewis CB – The Lions could go any number of directions on this pick. They could use an upgrade at DE with a player like Reddick or Taco Charlton, or they could decide to reach for a LB at this spot like Jarrad Davis. If I’m them I go with Lewis out of Michigan. The tape doesn’t lie, Lewis was highly productive in college and he wouldn’t have to move very far.
- Miami Dolphins – T.J. Watt DE – Miami needs a guard and Cam Robinson would be a great value at that position moving in from tackle, but Miami was horrible on defense for much of last season. Watt is a dynamic playmaker with a high motor and good bloodlines. Some people prefer Taco Charlton, but I’m all in on Watt. If that doesn’t work, a player like Marlon Humphrey or Sidney Jones might make sense, but I think the value as I said before is in the later rounds at cornerback.
- New York Giants – O.J. Howard TE – Eli Manning has about three years left max and if the Giants want to try and get to the Super Bowl, Howard can help them get there. The Giants don’t have a pressing need for a tight end, but this kid can be an All Pro and open up the middle of the field for a middling running game. He also would relieve pressure for Odell Beckham and give the Giants an offensive potential like the Patriots have in the passing game. I just don’t think you can pass that up to draft an offensive tackle or a linebacker that doesn’t have a first round grade.
- Oakland Raiders – Jarrad Davis LB – The Raiders have just signed Marshawn Lynch, so clearly with a healthy Derek Carr, they know they should be in the playoff chase for the next few seasons. The defense could use an injection of talent and Davis provides that from day one. He is an athletic compliment to a player like Khalil Mack and gives the Raiders a run stopper up the middle. They could add a cornerback too, but Davis is a good fit on this ball club from a need perspective.
- Houston Texans – Obi Melifonwu S – This won’t happen because the Texans are going to either trade up to take Watson or if the is picked too early, will probably settle for their next hope at QB, either DeShone Kizer or Patrick Mahomes. I just don’t have the same regard for those two quarterbacks in a draft that his heavy on 2nd and 3rd day selections at that position. Melifonwu is a stud athlete that can come in and play safety from day one and help your already stingy defense. Roll the dice with Tom Savage one more year, or take a flier on a QB like Davis Webb or Chad Kelly later on in the draft.
- Seattle Seahawks – Cam Robinson OT – Russell Wilson was under constant duress last season and the Seahawks need to shore that up. I love Robinson, although I’m not sure he is a starting right tackle, he should pencil in at guard if he doesn’t work out at tackle and start for ten years at guard. Other options include drafting another CB like Humphrey or maybe a versatile defender like Adoree’ Jackson or even reaching on a player like Jabrill Peppers could work out in Seattle’s system defense.
- Kansas City Chiefs – John Ross WR – I wrestled with picking a linebacker at this spot because the Chiefs have a need there and I like Zach Cunningham, but the Chiefs could use Ross to blow the lid off of defenses. They need help at WR and at RB, but the value of running back can be picked up down the line. Ross falling to this point is probably about right and he provides an undeniable amount of speed.
- Dallas Cowboys – Haason Reddick OLB – Because of Randy Gregory’s propensity to ingest drugs and last year’s reach for Jaylon Smith who may or may not come back from injury, the Cowboys are in need of someone to get to the quarterback. By hitting the jackpot last year with Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot, the Cowboys can focus solely on defense early this go round. They also need cornerbacks, but let’s be honest, Reddick is a great fit here. If he falls this far into the Cowboys lap, consider it a lock.
- Green Bay Packers – Quincy Wilson CB – The Packers need at corner coupled with the fact that the outside linebackers left at this spot don’t wow me, means that Wilson is the pick. Adoree’ Jackson could also be selected, with his return skills included, but I like Wilson’s big play ability a little bit more and he beats out Charles Harris the pass rusher, with Wilson’s value out on the edge for the Packers. The Packers would love to have one of the top running backs fall to them and could possibly trade up to get one if a free fall happened to any of the big three in this draft, but they should all be gone by now and the Packers need the help at corner.
- Pittsburgh Steelers – Charles Harris OLB – As always, the Steelers can use a pass rusher and this kid can certainly get after it. Very athletic and in the same vein of recent run of Mizzou ends coming into the NFL. I struggled with this, because the Steelers also could use an inside linebacker and a player like Zach Cunningham is still on the board, but I feel like they can get an inside linebacker later in the draft and you won’t get a player like Harris the next time the Steelers pick.
- Atlanta Falcons – Forrest Lamp G – After a Super Bowl win basically was left on the field due to poor play selection and a complete melt down on defense, you would think that defense would be the key to the draft for the Falcons. I argue that if they could have kept Matt Ryan upright in the fourth quarter, they would be the defending Super Bowl champs. In which case, Lamp comes in and should help solidify a shaky line. I don’t even have an alternative for the Falcons on this one, Lamp is the right fit at the right time.
- New Orleans Saints – Adoree’ Jackson CB – If the Saints address their need to get the quarterback early, like I have them slated to do with Carl Lawson, then they can address the secondary that seems to be like a sieve on a year to year basis. Jackson is as good an athlete as you will find in this draft and if he focuses solely on playing cornerback, he should become a top notch defender down the road. Chances are with someone like Taco Charlton is still here, you could argue that they could make a play for another pass rusher and address cornerback later, but I think they should address the need with the best player available. They also could go with Drew Brees’ heir apparent at this point, but I think you either do that later in the draft or trade up to get either Watson or Trubisky and I don’t think that’s an option if you want to give Brees one more chance to win as a Saint.
This draft is one of the stranger drafts I can remember. Very heavy on game changing running backs, limited on can’t miss quarterbacks and woefully short on top notch defensive tackles and offensive tackles with first round grades. As you go through the list of players that are available, it is quite evident that cornerback and linebacker/rush ends are the strength of this draft, but even those guys after a certain group could be swapped out with any player in the 2nd through 5th rounds and you could argue that a team made the right decision based on certain film.
Husker draftees could be short this year. I still think someone will take a chance on Nathan Gerry and Cethan Carter is certainly undervalued from his time at Nebraska, although his injury history will certainly cause him to fall in the draft if he is drafted at all. Jordan Westerkamp would be next bet on being drafted, I simply can’t see how he doesn’t make an NFL roster this fall if he is healthy. I watch enough of the NFL to know that plenty of teams can use someone that rarely drops the ball…hint, hint, Chicago. If Nebraska can keep the streak of multiple players drafted alive this year, they should start to see more players moving into the NFL as the Mike Riley era moves forward.
That’s it, that’s the list. Remember, this is how I would draft…history says I’m about as accurate as most GMs, which isn’t saying much.
