Hope springs eternal! Or this time, “falls” enteral? Either way, a new Nebraska season is finally here. Man, it’s been a while. When we last saw the Huskers, they were limping to a 3-5 season finish with a come from behind win over Rutgers. Nebraska failed to reach a bowl game for the fourth year.
To be honest, it feels even longer. Nebraska has been relative about two times in the last four years. When they hired Scott Frost and when they were ranked ahead of a 2018 season that ended worse than the season before. It’s been a long hard ride.
So why will this year be different? There are quite a few reasons for optimism, but it should probably be weary optimism. Nebraska returns most of their defense that was the only bright spot for much of last season. The special teams have an official coach in Mike Dawson for the first time in Frost’s career at Nebraska. Special teams really can’t get much worse outside of Connor Culp from last year, so that should at least be a brighter spot.
So why would we be so negative as the Huskers go into Champaign for the first game of the season? Quite simply, the offense has been awful. Scott Frost was considered a budding genius as an offensive coach when he was at Central Florida and Oregon. His first year at Nebraska was rough, but by the end of they year, you had an idea that Nebraska would figure it out and start being competitive in the Big Ten.
What happened after that was two seasons of sputtering outputs. Nebraska has yet to develop a running game that can compete consistently in the Big Ten. They have yet to produce wide receivers or really a quarterback that can compete for all Big Ten honors. The offensive line has been average at best and the running game outside of the quarterback all but disappeared.
Why will that change in 2021? I think a big part of the optimism is based on Adrian Martinez settling in and being consistent from week to week. Establishing a running game with the running backs is so important to Martinez and his health. Martinez simply can’t take the punishment he has received in the last two year. Two running backs that weren’t on the roster last season and a redshirt freshman (Markese Stepp, Gabe Ervin, Jr. and Sevion Morrison, respectively) are the leaders in the clubhouse to help Martinez.
They all need help from the offensive line. That is the piece that has really failed to propel the Huskers into the upper reaches of the Big Ten West. Veteran leadership from Cam Jurgens and Matt Sichterman should help the inside, but the tackles are young but talented. They all need to take a step forward, but they look the part off the bus.
Throw in a revamped wide receiver room and veteran tight ends in Austin Allen and Travis Vokolek and you start to see a Big Ten roster for probably the first time in Coach Frost’s tenure on the offensive side.
Martinez had his best season when he had Devine Ozigbo and Stanley Morgan on the team. Those two are still working to make NFL rosters but they were clearly great assets when they were in Lincoln. If Nebraska can finally recreate that type of supporting cast, they should be able to reach some of that potential that we all thought we were getting when Coach Frost was hired. If that doesn’t work out, this season could be a long one for all of Husker Nation.
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ON WITH THE REWIND…
Last game prediction was Rutgers 24, Nebraska 21. The actual score was Nebraska 28, Rutgers 21. I always question if we should put the final prediction back in the blog, but it is a gentle reminder where Nebraska was at the end of last season. No amount of Kool-Aid can cover the abysmal finish to the Husker’s Covid shortened season. Nebraska survived four turnovers from Adrian Martinez and physically handled Rutgers enough to win in the end. Hopefully those days of struggling are long behind Nebraska.
Quick Notes:
Scott Frost…A not so quiet off season almost slowed to a crawl once fall camp started, but an article about an NCAA investigation has started a lot of rumors about Coach Frost and his future at Nebraska. To be honest, the investigation on whether an analyst worked with players during a practice really doesn’t raise a flag for me. It’s likely nothing will come of it, other than a slap on the wrist. What it did show was the national perception of where Coach Frost is in terms of keeping his job. I think Frost is safe this year, even if they went 5-7. Changes would be made, but likely Frost would survive to 2022. If Nebraska were to fall off and only win 3 or 4 games, I don’t know that he would survive that. I think this is Frost’s best team. If he truly is growing as a head coach in the Big Ten, he could take that big step that we have all been expecting from his hire on day 1.
Adrian Martinez…Has there ever been a player that has had this much influence on a Husker season in the last 15 years? If Martinez goes down for any length of time it would likely be disastrous for Nebraska. He has had terrible turnovers at high-risk junctures of his career, but there is no denying he can change a game when he is playing well. Nebraska must keep him upright and healthy this year and any chance of winning more than 5 games is contingent on him playing at least 10 games this year. He has more talent around him than he has had for his entire career. He, much like Coach Frost, needs to take that large step this fall.
Sevion Morrison…I think the starter at running back on Saturday will be Morrison. He may not be the player with the most carries or the most production, but I’m betting on him being the starter. Stepp and Ervin will have their opportunities, but Morrison was the guy that I was the most excited by when he came out of high school. He reminded me of Demarco Murray from the Oklahoma days and I really think he has shown a lot of those skills in fall camp. If he is the man and can provide the rushing that Nebraska has really lacked since Ozigbo left, the sky is the limit for this Husker offense.
Cam Taylor-Britt…We haven’t talked too much defense in this week’s blog, but this guy is the leader of the Blackshirts. If Taylor-Britt has an all Big Ten season, which he is capable of, this defense can be a top four defense in the Big Ten. If that happens, Nebraska will have a legit chance of winning the Western division. Taylor-Britt can shut down the other teams best wide receiver every week. That allows a veteran defense to do unique things to create pressure on offenses that they otherwise may not be able to do. He is an NFL player. Nebraska needs him to play like it every week.
Season Predication:
Nebraska has the best overall roster since the last bowl season in 2016. The have veteran leadership on defense and have NFL caliber athletes all over the roster. The time is now. Scott Frost has been building it up, Husker fans are ready for the results in the win column. To me, the ceiling is likely 8 wins, but the floor, should something happen to Martinez, may be 3 wins. That’s a big swing. I like Nebraska to lean into a seven-win year. Eventually the one score ball games must go in Nebraska’s favor. No team has struggled more to win close games than Scott Frost led Husker teams in the last three years.
Score Prediction: Nebraska 31, Illinois 24
Going into the fourth year at Nebraska, Coach Frost has had two good game plans for season opening games and had his best half at Boulder in his second game in 2019. I feel like Nebraska will be well prepared for Illinois. The Illini bring back 22 Super Seniors, but they really have lost a lot of offensive fire power along the line and at wide receiver. Nebraska gave Illinois five turnovers last season and still had multiple opportunities to get back into the game. New coach Brett Bielema has a strong history in the Big Ten, but he will be breaking in his new team for the first time. Nebraska probably couldn’t have asked for a better time to play Illinois, as they will be working out some first-year coaching kinks. If Nebraska doesn’t win this game, it will be a long year in Lincoln. That shouldn’t happen this time! GBR!!
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