Nebraska, To Bowl, or Not to Bowl, That is the Question

What a heartbreaker this season has become for fans.  To start, the world was falling apart, Nebraska lost a Big Ten gut punch to Minnesota, then got routed on the road at hated Colorado.  Nebraska seemed to turn it around, winning 5 games out of 6 and everyone is thinking about possibly playing to win the West division.  November hits and Nebraska loses two games by a field goal and another in overtime and still hasn’t qualified for a bowl game.

Carriker Chronicles: Iowa Preview

Now Iowa comes to Lincoln with the West Division sewn up and not much to play for on their end, other than to slap their western rivals one more time before the divisions leave the Big Ten.  Iowa may not have much to play for this week, but believe me, Nebraska put a bad taste in their mouth last season and the last thing the Hawkeyes want is to have a losing streak against the Huskers.

If Nebraska wants to go bowling and I do believe that they hoped to have that clinched before this weekend, it makes Iowa a must win.  Nebraska didn’t want to be in this position, but horrible quarterback play in November has put them in a place that they can’t seem to escape.

Enter Chubba Purdy.  Purdy came out and blew the doors off the Badgers in Wisconsin last week in the first quarter.  More than that, Purdy didn’t turn the ball over until the overtime, on a basic last minute Hail Mary heave on fourth down with no one open.

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Purdy wasn’t an All American outside of the first quarter, but he did something that Nebraska has needed all season.  Someone to take care of the football.  

For the most part, 17 points is enough for the Huskers to win a lot of games this year.  Unfortunately, the way the Huskers have turned the ball over this season, it has forced the Blackshirts to burn a lot of energy just keeping Nebraska in games.  

If the Huskers want to go bowling tomorrow, the Blackshirts will have to take them.  Iowa’s offense, while starting to click, is no where near as potent as Maryland and won’t have a quarterback like Tanner Mordecai in Wisconsin that will force them to defend a running quarterback.  Iowa may try some trick plays, but if Nebraska can get to the quarterback, they should have ample opportunity to put Iowa in situations that they might produce turnovers.

All Purdy has to do is keep the ship afloat on offense.  Can Nebraska score enough points to make Iowa play from behind?  If they can do that, they will beat Iowa…if not, it will be another cold winter in Lincoln, with nowhere warm to go bowling.

ON WITH THE REWIND…

Last game prediction was Wisconsin 15 Nebraska 10.  The actual score was Wisconsin 24, Nebraska 17 in overtime.  I have to give Wisconsin a lot of credit.  Nebraska tried to put their foot on their throat early, but the Badgers just kept making plays to claw back into the game eventually taking a lead.  Nebraska’s inability to move the ball the entirety of the second half was a little confounding.  Wisconsin played tight on the young wide receivers and Nebraska was unable to make them pay in the passing game.  Iowa will play the same way on defense this week.  The passing game will have to step up.

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Quick Notes:

Chubba Purdy…Purdy not turning the ball over until the overtime was almost astonishing after watching Husker quarterbacks hand it over game after game.  Purdy played well enough to win, but he didn’t go take the game.  If Purdy can play just a little better and continue to take care of the ball, Nebraska can win on Black Friday.

Ty Robinson…A HUGE announcement this week that Robinson is coming back next season.  Finding veteran defensive lineman out of the portal is almost impossible and Robinson is better than almost anything Nebraska could have found.  If Nash Hutmacher comes back next year as well Nebraska should have one of the better defensive fronts in the Big Ten.  Not a bad place to be with the west coast teams joining the league.

Jalyen Lloyd…Lloyd had another long touchdown catch at Madison.  The growing pains this season for the freshman wide receivers should pay off next season.  Lloyd, Malachi Coleman and Jaidyn Doss will be lynchpins for the Husker passing game next season.  I expect Lloyd and Coleman to make some big plays against Iowa.  Top that off with supposed scout team star Demetrius Bell, and the Huskers should have a big jolt of experience and talent returning.

Billy Kemp…Nebraska needs Kemp on offense this week.  Kemp helped the Nebraska running game by taking short passes and busting up the field.  When Kemp started to get shut down, the Husker running game went with it.  Nebraska will need to use Kemp to keep Iowa spread out enough to allow Emmett Johnson to run the ball.  If Nebraska can’t rush for at least 150 yards, they have no chance of winning, unless they totally surprise everyone with the passing game.

Score Prediction:  Nebraska 17, Iowa 14

My head says no way Nebraska wins this game.  They simply aren’t talented enough or experienced enough on offense to beat a veteran team without some luck.  The Blackshirts, as good as they are, do not force enough turnovers.  And the special teams for the Huskers, has played about two games where they were better than the opposition.  Against Iowa, that won’t get it done.  My heart on the other hand says Nebraska takes a stand tomorrow.  The Huskers want to make a bowl game, they are at home for Senior day, emotions will be running high, and Iowa isn’t so much better that the Huskers can’t win.  Every fiber of my being says they won’t win, but screw fiber, it’s Thanksgiving and GBR!!!

WIsconsin Game Preview: The Yin and Yang of Husker Football

And “poof” just like that, Heinrich Haarberg is no longer the quarterback for the Huskers.

And almost just as fast, the Husker’s bowl hopes are dimming.  

It’s likely to be Chubba Purdy’s show this week.  It certainly can’t be Jeff Sims’ job, and even if he comes off the bench, you almost need to wonder how he can play?

Carriker Chronicles: Wisconsin Game

The turnovers that have affected the Huskers this season are as wild as they were in 1999.  I remember sitting in Potter, Nebraska when Nebraska lost to Ricky Williams in Texas that season.  Every game was an adventure.  How many fumbles would Nebraska have?  This season has the same quality, the problem is, there is no Eric Crouch and there is no chance to finish 12 and 1.

I don’t blame head coach Matt Rhule for all of the turnovers.  At a certain point as a coach, there isn’t much you can do, except try to match the play calling to the least expensive parts of the players skills.  Sims can make a ton of plays, but he is so careless with the ball, that teams are just waiting on him to drop the ball or throw into triple coverage off his back foot.  The same was true for Haarberg, teams were playing a center fielder on him, just waiting for him to float a ball over a receiver.

You can bet if teams are waiting for Nebraska to throw into coverage, they are just watching the quarterback’s eyes.  Neither Sims, nor Haarberg can throw accurate enough to get away with telegraphing where they are going with the ball.

And yet the Blackshirts continue, game after game, to give the Huskers a chance to win each week.  It’s amazing that they have played as well as they have and give credit to Coach Rhule and defensive coordinator Tony White.  They have kept the team afloat, despite the most deflating plays by the offense.

Nebraska made a run in the middle of the season that showed what this team and this staff are capable of.  Northwestern and Illinois have played great after playing Nebraska, so those wins were consequential.  If Nebraska is going to get any of that momentum back, they simply must keep the turnovers under three this week.  If not, the same three-point loss will haunt this team all offseason.

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ON WITH THE REWIND…

Last game prediction was Nebraska 24, Maryland 20.  The actual score was Maryland 13, Nebraska 10.  Nebraska had so many opportunities to win this game on offense, and all three quarterbacks just spit the bit.  Nebraska has such a good defense.  It is crazy that this team can’t take advantage of just giving up 13 points.  Nebraska has suffered a lot of injuries on offense, but worse than injuries, the quarterbacks have lost more games for this team than they have won.  I’m back in “I’ll believe it when I see it” mode.

Quick Notes:

Emmett Johnson…Johnson has been so good since he started playing.  He might not lead the team in rushing, and if he does, it might not even be 500 yards.  However, he has been one of the few sparks that has been consistent, without making costly plays this year.  Whatever happens the rest of the season, Johnson has made it known that he will be a factor in Lincoln for however long he wants to stick around.  Nebraska needs to try and ride his surge to another victory.

Ty Robinson…As good as Nash Hutmacher has been this season, Robinson is now trading big plays with him, and exceeding Hutmacher with his play.  That says a lot, because Hutmacher is playing at an all-conference level.  I knew of Robinson’s dad when he played at Chadron State.  And let me tell you, his dad was a hell of a basketball player.  Ty has eclipsed his dad and has earned the right to go play in the NFL.  He has left it all on the field this season.

Javin Wright…And just like that, another Blackshirt has shown up and made huge plays to keep the Huskers in a game.  Wright has popped multiple times this season but had arguably his best game as a Husker against Maryland.  His interception was as good of a play as any I’ve seen this season.  Wright is just a Junior and him coming back next season will help keep the Blackshirts toward the top of the conference.

Billy Kemp…Amazingly enough, Kemp continues to make plays, despite the fact that every time someone throws him the ball, he is lucky if it is within 2 feet of him.  Kemp won’t have the catches that he had at Virginia, but this season he has been the leader a young wide receiver corps has needed.  Whatever Kemp does in his future, Nebraska owes him simply for being everything they could have hoped when the transferred in.

Score Prediction:  Wisconsin 15, Nebraska 10

Each throw makes me hold my breath.  And without the quarterback run game, the open receivers aren’t as open as they were.  To go along with that, when they are open, the throws are 50/50 if they are even catchable.  I know the Blackshirts will rise up to the occasion again, but I don’t know if you can trust Nebraska to keep the turnovers under four.  If the Huskers can keep it to two or less, then flip this score, but like I said before, I’ll believe it when I see it.  Can Chubba Purdy do what Jeff Sims and Heinrich Haarberg couldn’t?  I’m not so sure.  And yet I will still be watching NBC Saturday night, yelling at my tv hoping I can make a difference and GBR!!!

Forget Next Year, for Haarberg, Next Year is Now

There is always a “will they, won’t they” part of a sitcom that typically comes into play when there are relationships with a man and a woman.  Generally, the point of the story is, the buildup courtship is funny, and then eventually they get together, and more hilarity ensues.  It’s a tale as old as television, radios, or stories themselves.

So how long will Heinrich Haarberg and the Nebraska Cornhuskers remain together?

Carriker Chronicles Maryland Predictions

At least as the starting quarterback?

Let us review the last three months to see how we have gotten here.  Jeff Sims was brought in last January, to fight for the starting job.  He won that job during the spring.  Sims started the first two games of the season, but turned the ball over in very costly situations, and Nebraska started 0-2.  Sims hurt his ankle against Colorado and had to come out. In comes Heinrich Haarberg.  Haarberg goes on to lead Nebraska to a 5-2 record in games he has started.  

Now, the current situation.  Haarberg has been running hesitant for the last three games.  You see that sometimes in quarterbacks after they take a few licks, because getting nailed by big nasty linebackers and defensive ends isn’t everyone’s favorite past time.  Sometimes players become hesitant because they aren’t sure what they are supposed to do on a given play.  Sometimes players lose their aggressiveness because they are hurt or want to avoid getting hurt worse.

I suspect one of these things is affecting Haarberg right now.  During Scott Frost’s tenure, it certainly happened to Adrian Martinez.  Adrian looked like he was going to be an All-American his freshman year at Nebraska, but over time, he too suffered an affliction to running hard on each play or figuring out how to stay healthy running the football at a high level.

I don’t blame players for this progression when it happens.  Playing quarterback is hard.  It’s especially hard when you are going to get beat up game after game.

Haarberg is not a polished passer.  If he isn’t running at a high level, the reason for having him out there in the first place is greatly diminished.

Matt Rhule made it clear that they are developing Haarberg for the future at Nebraska.  The kid is still young and will have two more years to play after this one.

Haarberg is also leading the team in turnovers, starting to make them at the same rate as Jeff Sims did when he was healthy. The same rate that led Sims to not get the starting job back in the first place.

So now we must wonder, will he, or won’t he (meaning Haarberg) come back to that freelance, running through defenders, quarterback he was the first few starts?  Or will he continue to make costly mistakes, not being aggressive enough in the run game?

It likely will determine if Nebraska finishes in a bowl game or sits at home for another season.

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ON WITH THE REWIND…

Last game prediction was Nebraska 30, Michigan State 14.  The actual score was Michigan State 20 Nebraska 17.  For the first time in a while, the Blackshirts weren’t perfect.  Michigan State had a solid game plan, made the defense defend the pass, and made trick plays and scored just enough.  I said it before, I don’t know that the defense will give up more than 20 points in a game the rest of the season.  I still think that.  At East Lansing, it wasn’t the Blackshirts fault the offense couldn’t do enough to win the game.  If the Blackshirts need to be perfect to win every game, I don’t expect many more wins this year.

Quick Notes:

Heinrich Haarberg…Haarberg was unable to pass to wide open receivers last week.  Whether he didn’t see them, or they dropped it, or they ran the wrong route, those are passes that are needed to win Big Ten games.  Haarberg is the leader on the team.  Last week was on him.  Receivers were open and he either threw a bad pass, or simply didn’t make it through his reads.  I understand the offensive line regressed a bit last week, but Haarberg held the ball way to long on too many plays.  Teams are wise that Haarberg isn’t throwing well.  The coaching staff needs to get back to the throws that he throws well and quit trying to do too much that Haarberg can’t.

Tommi Hill…After a two-interception performance against Purdue, you could tell that Hill was starting to figure out how to jump bad passes.  He almost did it again against the Spartans.  The problem is the defense is counting on him to pick those passes in each game.  Hill needs to bounce back this week with a big performance, against a Maryland team that will want to use his aggressiveness against him.  If Hill responds with a big game, it could swing the balance toward the Huskers.

Malachi Coleman…Coleman had two catches at the game in Michigan State.  Now is the time that the offense starts looking for him more.  Coleman is open on a lot of plays, and Haarberg doesn’t always get to him in his reads.  Coleman is as good at running crossing routes as anyone on the team and it’s hard for defensive backs to keep up with him when he gets past them.  Nebraska needs to use that to their advantage.  Coleman should be targeted at least as many times as Fidone.  If those are your main reads, fine, but make sure Coleman is getting a look when he is out there.

Nash Hutmacher…If Nebraska is going to make it to a bowl game, they are going to need a defender to step up and simply will them to a victory.  Hutmacher has been the most consistent player on the Blackshirts this season.  This week he needs to put the center into Maryland’s quarterback to disrupt his timing.  Maryland likes to throw short passes, quick passes, and give their players a chance to make plays in space.  If the defensive line can push the line back to disrupt that timing, Nebraska can take advantage of miscues.

Score Prediction:  Nebraska 24, Maryland 20

Nebraska did not play well in the second half against Michigan State.  It was a bit alarming that the defense played better, but the offense played worse and the special teams, especially the punt team put Nebraska in terrible field position what seems like the entire game.  The game against Maryland is supposed to be very windy.  I think that gives a big advantage to Nebraska.  I think the special teams will not play as bad as the week before either.  Maryland could easily win this game, they are favored.  I just think Nebraska has a lot left to play for, and I expect them to bounce back this week and clinch a bowl berth, while we are all screaming, GBR!!!

Huskers Set the Tone…Can it Continue?

After Nebraska lost to Minnesota, in a game I was convinced we would win, with about 6 minutes to play in the game, I didn’t know if or when I could trust Nebraska again.

It was hard to know that Nebraska would start with two bad losses at the beginning of the season.  It was harder to know where the team would be after 8 games.

I type all of this, because as good as it all has been, I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop.  Odds are it likely still will before the season runs out.

I said when Nebraska started this run of four conference games after playing Michigan, they had to go 2 and 2 at worst, and hope for 3-1.  Anything less than that would likely mean no bowl game.  Now, I’m wondering if they are going to be 4-0, and could they possibly put themselves in position to be playing Wisconsin and Iowa to win the final year of the Big Ten West division? I can’t go there just yet.

CARRIKER CHRONICLES SHOW

I get it, the three-game winning streak is nice.  Nebraska has the best defense in the Big Ten that doesn’t play in Ann Arbor or Columbus (and maybe Happy Valley) but it might not be as far off as it seemed after the Michigan game.

Luckily the offense will keep most fans humble.  The continued turnovers eventually will come home to roost.  It may be this weekend on the road with a wounded Michigan State team.  More likely it will happen when Maryland comes to town or in Wisconsin.  Henrich Haarberg has been stellar in leading the team, but the hits are taking a toll on him.  He doesn’t attack near as hard as he did his first three starts when he runs the football.

Can Haarberg stop turning the ball over?  Will he figure out the option pitch and make teams pay for trying to take him out?  Can the Huskers stay healthy enough to score 20 points a game?  That might be all it takes to win out.  

I don’t know if any of those things will happen or not, but how can you not be excited about this team moving forward?  Lean into it, enjoy it.  Matt Rhule has finally given us all hope.  After that first loss to Minnesota, I’d say that is something we can trust.

 

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ON WITH THE REWIND…

Last game prediction was Nebraska 24, Purdue 16.  The actual score was Nebraska 31, Purdue 14.  I don’t know when I’m going to learn, but I can tell you that the Blackshirts aren’t giving up more than 20 points in a game the rest of the season.  They are deep, talented, disciplined, and hungry.  It’s the best defense Nebraska has had since 2010.  If the offense plays a clean game, they are the best team in the West and probably the fourth best team in the league.  The fourth best team in the league will start to put opponents away.  If Nebraska truly is ready, they should roll this week.

Quick Notes:

Jaylen Lloyd…First it was Malachi Coleman, next it was Jaylen Lloyd.  Now can Jaidyn Doss get into the action?  The first-year receivers have been thrust into the fire due to injuries.  While the stats only show a couple of big plays for touchdowns, those plays have been very influential each game.  If the three of these speedsters can get better each week, the future is so bright for them all.  Haarberg needs to take care of them and give them some easy catches to continue to build their confidence.

Quinton Newsome…Isaac Gifford.  Omar Brown.  Deshon Singleton.  These four have all had huge games this season for the Huskers.  Now one of the most consistent defenders finally put a big stamp on a game.  Newsome blew up for the Huskers, returning a blocked field goal for a touchdown and recovering two VERY large fumbles.  Newsome doesn’t always get the credit he deserves because he shuts down his man and no one talks about the guy that doesn’t get thrown at.  Newsome continues to be another leader on this crazy good Blackshirt defense.

Princewell Umanmielen…He started out the season battling injuries, but this freshman has shown out now that he is healthy.  Like his counterpart, Cam Lenhardt, Umanmielen has been impressive in his initial season.  To play at this level and make plays that you expect Juniors or Seniors to make, has to make you wonder how great these guys will be in a few years.  Throw Riley Van Popple in the mix and if these three all stay healthy, Nebraska is in great hands moving forward. 

Tristan Alvano…It took him a few games, but Alvano looks to have his confidence back.  His 55-yard field goal in a swirling wind, after nailing a long one the week before into the wind, has proven that Alvano truly is special.  He may have been hurt at the beginning of the season, and that may have caused him to miss some easier kicks, but my trust in Alvano to bring it home the rest of the season is sky high.

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Score Prediction:  Nebraska 30, Michigan State 14

Nebraska has a defense that travels.  Michigan State has lost six in a row.  I expect the Spartans to come out and try to bully Nebraska, but this isn’t your previous year Husker team.  Nebraska’s defense can keep any team from scoring more than three times.  If the offense doesn’t turn the ball over in their own red zone, I just don’t see Michigan State scoring more than two touchdowns.  Part of me thinks the Huskers will get a shutout this season and maybe it’s this game.  I’m giving Sparty a lot of credit that they will rise up on Senior Day at home, but I expect the Huskers to dominate the second half of this game.  As they fly home, the Huskers will enjoy earning a bowl bid under a first-year new coach.  If that doesn’t make you say GBR, nothing will!!!