Penn State Blog

 

(Predictions are at the end if you don’t want to read the rest!)

Nebraska is nothing if not consistent with their drama.  This week during a rather innocuous bye week that didn’t have much in the way of news, Dayton Raiola, brother of Husker quarterback Dylan Raiola and nephew of offensive line coach Donovan Raiola, decommited from the Huskers and brought all sorts of rumors with that decision.

I keep wondering if this is just how college football is from now on, and we just need to harden ourselves to the reality that things like this are going to happen over and over again.  Immediately after Dayton decomitted, rumors began swirling that Dylan would transfer, that their legacy father Dominic was negotiating with other Power Four conference teams for a package deal and that Donnie, the offensive line coach was on his way out.  If this rumor mill is accurate, Nebraska could be in for a rocky offseason, that could change the direction of the program for the rest of Matt Rhule’s tenure.

I’m a big Dylan Raiola supporter and while I understand some Husker fans think he hasn’t lived up to the hype, I’m also a big picture thinker and I believe that Dylan’s best game play has yet to come.  He left the season injured, but he also had improved from 13 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in 13 games to 18 touchdowns and 6 interceptions in 8.5 games.  Nebraska is also starting to become a winning program in his two years of leadership, something that hadn’t been the case for the prior 8 seasons.

Don’t get it twisted, I’m a big fan of TJ Lateef as well, and I thought he played awesome in his first start at UCLA.  The problem with that reactionary take that Lateef is better than Raiola after one start, is reaching at best and ludicrous at worst.  Maybe Lateef is the next Eric Crouch, and that would be awesome, but I’m not ready, paraphrasing the late Denny Green, to crown his ass just yet.

Losing Dylan would be like Wan’dale Robinson leaving, on steroids.  If you think Dylan is no good, I’m going to guarantee if he ended up at Oregon, Georgia or Miami next year, you would probably see him become an All American behind their pro style offensive lines.  That would be a hard pill to swallow unless Lateef becomes an All American himself.

Losing a legacy quarterback recruit like Dayton with two weeks to signing day almost guarantees that you will have to pay two quarterbacks a lot of money because if Dylan leaves, you have to pay Lateef, who is not a guarantee, and then go pay more for a portal quarterback because you have lost, not only your starter, but the backup plan in your quarterback development for 2026.  The issue with paying two quarterbacks starter money is that it takes away from the money for other parts of the roster that you need to win in college football.

Nebraska is in a tight spot with Dayton’s decommitment and now we are left waiting to see what carnage is coming should his brother leave as well.  What a week of drama.

ON WITH THE REWIND…

Last game prediction was UCLA 31, Nebraska 23. The actual score was Nebraska 28, UCLA 21.  I have to admit, I wasn’t expecting TJ Lateef to look so confident and so comfortable against the Bruins on the road.  He played great and Nebraska leaned on Emmett Johnson’s All American like season to jump to a three-touchdown lead.  The problem was the Blackshirts inability to keep the quarterback run game in check and that is a microcosm of the entire season.  Running quarterbacks have killed the Huskers and no matter how good the offensive game plan was, the inability to turn the Bruins over almost led to a Husker loss.  Lateef was a revelation.  Let’s hope that is the case for the last two games of the season.

Quick Notes:

Emmett Johnson…Johnson was the national player of the week after the UCLA game; he was also vaulted into the Heisman conversation.  Johnson has been everything you could have wanted and more this season for the Huskers. If Johnson continues to play at this level, Nebraska could win their final two games.  Teams will be gearing up to stop him, so he will have his work cut out for him.  Either way, Nebraska wouldn’t be near as good this season without his great play.

TJ Lateef....It feels lazy just to keep highlighting the same guys on offense week to week, but Lateef was a star in his first true college start.  To come up that big on the road, in a game the Huskers really should win, was a big step forward for the Huskers’ future, but also for Lateef.  As I stated above, his play has elevated the rumors about his role moving forward and also how much it will take to keep him in Lincoln next season.  I’ll wait to see what happens against Penn State this week, it is clear that Lateef has talent.  Hopefully Nebraska will continue to utilize it for winning football.

Deshon Singleton...…Singleton has been playing his best football of his career that last few weeks.  Singleton and Rex Guthrie have paired up to really limit the passing game to tight ends and running backs, along with supporting the run.  They haven’t done great limiting opposing quarterbacks from running, but that has as much to do with the linebacker play as the safeties.  Singleton’s physicality has helped set a tone that teams shouldn’t throw down the middle of the field.

Ceyair Wright....When is the last time you can remember hearing Wright’s name on a blown coverage?  I don’t know if I can think of many, or any for that matter.  Wright’s numbers on passes deflected and interceptions won’t show much, but that is because he has completely shut down the passing game for his man.  I don’t know if Wright will be named All-Conference, but he should.  He is the best man to man corner we have had since Prince Amukamara.  That is high praise, and he will be missed next season.

Score Prediction: Penn State 27, Nebraska 24

I would love to tell you that Nebraska is the better team this week.  I’d also love to tell you that Penn State’s inability to play well in the passing game is music to the Blackshirts’ ears.  The problem is, Penn State has not one, but two NFL caliber running backs.  I expect them to carry the ball upwards of 50 times in this game.  Nebraska’s inability to stop the run has hurt them all season.  Keep in mind it is Senior Day in State College, at night, in one of the more difficult places to play in the country.  I recognize that Penn State is 4-6, but they are still playing for the postseason.  If there wasn’t so much riding on this, I’d say Nebraska would win but based on the prior three weeks and how hard Penn State continues to play, I’m guessing this game will be low scoring and very difficult for the Huskers.  This game has a chance to change the outside perception of the Huskers.  If Dylan Raiola was playing, I would pick Nebraska.  If TJ Lateef plays like he did against UCLA, Nebraska has a great chance, I just think the Huskers will come up short.  I was wrong in LA, let’s hope I’m wrong again and GBR!!!

Storm Bruin Out West

 

Predictions are at the end if you don’t want to read the rest!)

Much has been made last week about Nebraska and specifically, Matt Rhule’s inability to beat ranked teams.  It didn’t help that Nebraska blew a 14-6 lead against USC last weekend, but more on that later.

What remains to be determined is if Matt Rhule has improved Nebraska enough to substantiate the large salary he receives and the huge extension he just signed to increase his buyout.

Now you could argue that Rhule hasn’t won any big games, but I don’t think that’s the case.  He did beat Colorado last year, which I felt was the biggest game in the new era of Nebraska football, simply because it was a beast that needed slayed and Colorado was the darling of college football media.  

Rhule also beat Cincinnati to begin the season, when quite often Nebraska has not won their opening game against “Power four” opponents prior to victory, for quite some time.

On the flip side, Rhule doesn’t have any big wins in the Big Ten.  And that is where I think the main problem lies, because if you can’t win big games in the Big Ten, then where is the progress?

I’m a little more down the middle.  When Matt Rhule showed up, Nebraska had bottom 5 talent in the conference.  Sure, I suppose you could say that they had some NFL talent in players like Ty Robinson and John Bullock, but lets be real, if you thought Bullock was an NFL talent when Rhule got here, you were one of about 3 people and one of those people was John Bullock, the other was probably his mom.  

The offensive line was not putting players in the NFL and the skill players, while talented in some areas, were nowhere near good enough to beat teams like Ohio State and Michigan.

Nebraska had been in the gutter for so long that players were simply turning down Nebraska to play in places like Colorado or Iowa, and Nebraska wasn’t having much success getting recruits from Florida or the south in general.  The 500-mile radius battles against Indiana and Illinois were 50/50 bets at best and if you wanted a player that might get a last-minute offer to Ohio State, good luck.

Since that time, Rhule has added players like 5 Star quarterback Dylan Raiola, stud wide receiver Jacorey Barney and starting linebacker Vincent Shavers Jr and freshman sensation Kaden Pietrzak.  Each of those players was highly sought after by the top teams in the country.  All are huge players in Nebraska’s overall development, and Nebraska has been able to supplement the rebuild through NIL with players like Dasan McCullough, Andrew Marshall and Williams Nwaneri who have all had huge roles on defense along with players like Nyziah Hunter and Rocco Spindler that have been arguably the best players on offense.

With the emergence of Emmett Johnson this year as a likely first team All-Big Ten running back, Nebraska is starting to show some life in not only acquiring talent but developing talent as well.

It doesn’t mean that Nebraska is ready to play for a Big Ten title, and it likely means that Nebraska is a way off from being a playoff contender, although if Raiola doesn’t get hurt against USC and Nebraska holds on, they most certainly would have been in the discussion.

What it does mean is that for the first time in almost a decade, a coach is building something brick by brick that will be a solid foundation not just right now, but for the future.  It will require a bit more patience from Husker fans, but honestly, it’s the best chip Nebraska has to play.  

ON WITH THE REWIND…

Last game prediction was Nebraska 33, USC 28. The actual score was USC 21, Nebraska 17.  As I stated earlier, losing a 14-6 lead and then later a 17-14 lead was a huge letdown on a great night to slay an old dragon.  Worse yet, Nebraska lost its starting quarterback for the rest of the season, going into a stretch of games that they could not afford to lose him.  It was a rough night for a lot of reasons.  On the other hand, I thought Nebraska coaches had a great game plan to beat USC.  It wasn’t pretty, they still struggled to stop the run, but Nebraska was the better team for the most part and if Raiola doesn’t go down, it’s likely a different write up going into UCLA.

Quick Notes:

Emmett Johnson…What more can you say about Johnson?  He has single handedly given Nebraska a chance to win every game.  He is the best overall player on the team and likely the best running back since Ameer Abdullah played in Lincoln, twelve years ago.  Johnson, if he plays the last three games, will likely lead the Big Ten in rushing and will possibly be the running back of the year in a conference with great running teams.  If you had placed a bet on that prior to the season, it’s likely you would be a rich person in just a few weeks.

TJ Lateef....Ok kid, now is your chance.  The injury to Raiola was a huge blow to a Husker offense that has been able to rely on Raiola every week since he got to Nebraska.  Raiola hasn’t always played great, but he has certainly played great at times and was an anchor that you didn’t have to worry about each week.  Now Lateef gets an opportunity to show what he can do.  Lateef has a lot of skills that have shined at different points of the season, most notably his ability to run the football.  If Nebraska has him prepared, UCLA’s 123rd ranked defense should be the perfect opportunity for him to have some success and hopefully provide Nebraska with a chance to win on the road.

Javin Wright...…Wright continues to shine in his final season in Lincoln.  The rangy linebacker again led the team in tackles against USC and included a sack for his efforts.  Wright has played at such a high level lately, you just expect him to be in on every tackle.  It hasn’t been enough to mask the deficiencies in the run defense, but I can’t imagine how bad the Blackshirts would be without Wright.

Andrew Marshall....Marshall continues to be a shining example of an NIL pick that has been an instant success.  Marshall and Ceyair Wright have combined to lead the back end of the Blackshirts to have the number two overall pass defense in the country.  Nebraska limited Jayden Maiava to 136 yards through the air, when USC was routinely throwing 300 yards a game.  If Nebraska has any chance of winning any more games this year, they will need to stop the run game.  If it’s one thing we know, they already have the passing game on clamp down.

Score Prediction: UCLA 31, Nebraska 23

Nebraskans probably had this game circled way back in August as a likely win.  And I think if Dylan Raiola was playing, Nebraska would win in a shootout and likely put 35-40 points on the board.  However, with TJ Lateef starting his first game, on the road, against a team that has figured out their offense, I don’t think Nebraska will be able to pull this one out.  I still think Nebraska can win another game, but this is such a large ask of a true freshman, I’ll be pleasantly shocked if the Huskers pull this one out.  The crazy thing is, Nebraska will likely have the crowd in their favor, as over 20,000 Nebraska fans are expected to attend.  I’d like to be wrong again this week, so drink plenty of caffeine, get ready for a late night and GBR!!!