Tis a season of either firsts or lasts. Either Scott Frost finally has his first winning season at Nebraska and rolls into a bowl game, or the trap door that almost fell open at the end of last season, blasts open and the prodigal son returns out into the wild. (Predictions are at the end if you don’t want to read the rest!)
Such is the wildest, most interesting season in Nebraska football since Frost’s arrival four seasons ago.
Nebraska may have lacked wins the last six seasons, but they haven’t lacked drama (best 3-9 team of all time) or scrutiny (Covid practices, fighting with the Big Ten) or painstaking mediocrity (15-29 under Frost, 19-19 the last three years under Mike Riley).
Now it is basically put up or get out time. Trev Alberts allowed Scott Frost to redo his contract at the end of last season, decreasing his buy out, but giving Frost a little more rope to try and right the Husker ship.
Frost responded by firing multiple coaches in the offseason and doing something that a lot of fans have asked for. Frost brought in a seasoned veteran in Mark Whipple to run the offense. Forever people have suggested that Frost needed an assistant that had seen it all to help him with the rigors of coaching in one of, if not the, most elite conference in the country. Frosty also hired a new offensive line coach in Donavan Raiola, that needed to happen. Multiple times rewatching games, offensive lineman had no idea what their assignment was on certain plays and simply just ran around looking for someone to block. If Nebraska can correct ¾ of those problems, they should improve offensively at least to be more consistent.
Nebraska also hired Bryan Applewhite to coach the running backs. Applewhite remade the room, grabbing junior college star Anthony Grant and pulling in highly regarded Ajay Allen from high school. The current running backs in the room, like Rahmir Johnson, Gabe Ervin and Jaquez Yant all needed a different coaching style than what has been happening the last four years.
Will any of this make enough difference for Frost to keep his job going into 2023? I’d say that it should help a lot. Whipple has been around the block, coaching in the NFL and everywhere you could think in college. Last year with Pittsburgh he helped Kenny Pickett become a Heisman Finalist and the Panthers were one of the hottest scoring teams in the nation. Whipple is a quarterback guy, and his newest pupil, Casey Thompson, should provide an ample canvas to work with.
That brings us to arguably the best hire that Scott Frost made, bringing back Mickey Joseph to coach the wide receivers. Joseph has been the best receiver coach in the country the last four years, putting countless players in the pros that have turned out to be budding stars in the NFL. Joseph may not have all the horses he had at LSU, but he will maximize the play of what he does have, and he does have talent.
So where does this leave Scott Frost and Nebraska? Well, you could argue that Frost has the easiest schedule he has had since he came back to the Huskers. The only catch with that is the back end is probably the toughest group of four games you could ask for. Nebraska needs to make hay early, or the good will that Frost has earned over again could be washed away by a brutal stretch of Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa to close out the season.
Nebraska simply must do something they have failed to do in Frost’s tenure so far, win a lot of games. Nebraska wins the offseason as well as any program in the country. It is time to win during the regular season, or Frost will be looking for a new place to live. It’s unfortunate for this original feel-good story, but at this point Nebraska fans need a winner.
ON WITH THE REWIND…
Last game prediction was Iowa 23, Nebraska 21. The actual score was Iowa 28 Nebraska 21. Logan Smothers cam out last season and played admirably against Iowa. Nebraska was it’s own worst enemy again the second half, with bad special teams play and the inability to make first downs when needed the most. It will be interesting if any of that changes this year.
Quick Notes:
Scott Frost…I’ve already said a lot about Frost’s tenure, but this truly is a make-or-break season for the coach. He either will have a long career in Lincoln as the head coach or he will be back out looking for an offensive coordinator position or analyst position on Nick Saban’s staff. There really isn’t much in between right now.
Casey Thompson…Out of the frying pan and into the fire? Leaving Texas was probably not where Thompson saw himself last year, but their loss is Nebraska’s great gain. Thompson will be an entirely different quarterback than Adrian Martinez. A much more controlled passer and much more accurate, Thompson should allow the offense to be much more balanced with the running back run game. The real question is if the offensive line will give him enough time to let routes develop. Keeping teams honest should allow for play action and possibly more screen game and bubble game. If that happens, Nebraska will have plenty of opportunities in the red zone, which is where Thompson’s accuracy should finally allow the Huskers to be an efficient passing team. You could argue it has been since the days of Tommy Armstrong that Nebraska has had a solid passing threat inside the ten-yard line.
Garrett Nelson…The captain from Scottsbluff has come a long way from being a freshman that really should have redshirted, to being a possible NFL draft pick after this season. Nelson has never been questioned about his Husker heart, he truly does bleed red, but now he has the game to match. The improvement of Caleb Tannor and the addition of All Big Twelve edge rusher Ochaun Mathis should lesson the attention that Nelson will receive this year. If Nelson is close to being an all-conference selection by the end of the season, Nebraska will definitely be playing in a bowl game this winter.
Transfer Central…Nebraska has gone out and added arguably a top ten transfer class in the off season. Nebraska will be relying on players at wide receiver, running back, defensive tackle, edge rusher, quarterback, kicker and punter to elevate their game. If those players pan out, Nebraska could have a mirror of what Michigan State experienced last season. If not, it will be a struggle in Lincoln. A strong culture should help the team absorb all of these changes. If the transfers do not come out and help immediately, Nebraska’s season could be over before it begins.
Season Predication:
Fourth verse, same as the first. Nebraska under Scott Frost has been awful in one score ball games. The common denominator in that has been Adrian Martinez. Martinez is off to Kansas State, so now we find out which one of them was more likely the culprit. Love him or hate him, Nebraska went as Adrian went and Frost did little to help him out in his four years. If Nebraska has any chance at a winning season, they must win the 50/50 games. Nebraska has the most favorable schedule they’ve had in years. If they don’t start the season 6-2 at a minimum, it is likely that Scott Frost won’t be around next season. Nebraska has a floor of four wins and a likely ceiling of nine. Last season I felt like the floor was four wins and they failed to even reach that.
I will go even further, I think if Nebraska fails to win more than six games, this will be the final season for Scott Frost. I hate to split the difference, but I think Nebraska will finish 7-5 and make it to the first bowl game in Frost’s tenure. If that happens, it’s likely he gets one more year. Anything less than that and Nebraska will be looking for a new coach in November.
Score Prediction: Nebraska 31, Northwestern 16
Nebraska played their best game against Northwestern last season, and I really felt like that was going to be a springboard to a great year. Turns out it was Nebraska’s last win, and they would go on to crush Husker hearts all over the country by losing close games every week. I’ve been wrestling with this prediction all during preseason camp. On paper, Nebraska should crush Northwestern, but breaking in a new quarterback, new offensive coordinator and new offensive staff, there will likely be some stumbles. All that being said, I still think Nebraska has enough explosive talent on offense to pull away in the end. I’m going all in on this Kool-Aid! Let’s go Huskers and as always, GBR!!
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