What an offseason. When we last left you, this blog predicted (along with many others, but very early in the process!) that Matt Rhule was likely to be named the head coach at Nebraska. (Predictions are at the end if you don’t want to read the rest!)
Rhule hit the ground running. He immediately hired a staff that he was familiar with, from his days at Temple, Baylor and Carolina. He recruited with a fervor that Scott Frost had his first two years and then slowly moved away from. He made Nebraska his home, immediately, so much so that his oldest son is staying behind in North Carolina to graduate from high school, while Coach Rhule has locked himself in and around Memorial Stadium. He made Texas his recruiting stomping grounds and made sure that any Nebraska kid that wanted to play at Nebraska had a home if they had other DI offers.
It takes a special person to leave someone they love with their parents, to give themselves entirely to a job. Whatever you think of the hire of Matt Rhule, he has checked all the boxes you would want prior to playing a game. That has been awesome and breath of fresh air for a program that needed it.
Now…the real tests begin. Nebraska is famous for winning the offseason. From Mike Riley’s “Calibraska” to Scott Frost and his players working so hard they throw up in practice, the only winning with any consistency has been the coaches talking with the media the last seven years.
Coach Rhule has also won the offseason, but the difference seems to be that he is working to instill a sense of toughness, attitude and culture within the organization that will show out in close games and turn these recent one score losses into victory. Nebraska has lost more games by one score or less than any team in the Big Ten the last four years. To get over that hump, Coach Rhule knows that you may have to simply be able to win the fourth quarter. Running the football and stopping the run are the two main ingredients. With the last two coaches, at least one of those two requirements never materialized from season to season.
Nebraska has a new identity, a new coach, a new quarterback and likely a lot of new or different faces that will play this fall. How Coach Rhule acclimates them to his style and his culture will be the difference between what is likely four or five wins and going to a bowl game in his first season.
Here is the thing about new coaches, if they are good, they generally make a splash right away and you can tell that they are going to succeed early. If Nebraska stumbles out of the gate, it may be a harbinger of things to come, but I don’t think they will. I think Coach Rhule has a formula that will work at Nebraska. Hopefully it doesn’t take long for it to result in wins.
ON WITH THE REWIND…
Last game prediction was Nebraska 21, Iowa 20. The actual score was Nebraska 24, Iowa 17. Nebraska couldn’t take down many big fish last season, only winning four games, but they took down the biggest at the end of the year, keeping Iowa out of the Big Ten title game and wrapping a bow on an otherwise miserable season. It seems like a lifetime ago that Mickey Joseph was the interim head coach. Now the hope is that the Iowa game was a start of a winning streak.
Quick Notes:
Jeff Sims…Sims will be the straw that stirs the drink for the Cornhusker offense in 2023. I had hoped that Nebraska could convince Casey Thompson to stay and try to earn the job this fall, but it felt like he was never given the opportunity to win it this spring. Now, whether that is because Sims beat him outright, or that Thompson was never given much of an opportunity, that remains to be seen. There is no questioning that Sims looks good on the hoof. He is probably the best athlete to play quarterback at Nebraska since Taylor Martinez and he is much bigger. If Nebraska is going to make any strides this season, it will because Sims improves as a passer, from where he was at Georgia Tech. And keeping him healthy and upright is a challenge as well, that Nebraska needs to overcome.
Gabe Ervin Jr.…When Ervin was a freshman and was the first true freshman running back to ever start a season opener at Nebraska, you could see the potential. Someone famous once said potential means, “ain’t done sh*t yet” and that is really where Ervin is. He has earned the starting nod in camp and we know what he is capable of. Nebraska needs him to be more than just serviceable, they need him to be a horse. Where the renewed faith in the running game goes, likely rests on his shoulders this fall.
Ty Robinson and Nash Hutmacher…Here’s the BEEF! These two veterans are finally upper classmen. From all accounts, they have worked very hard to get their bodies ready for this new 3-3-5 defense Nebraska is going to run. In the Big Ten, especially in the western division, you have to be able to stand up to the run. If these two lead blocks of granite can hold the line and allow all around them to make plays, Nebraska could have a special defense. If they can’t, it’s more than likely Nebraska will struggle to win consistently.
Brian Buschini…Special teams is a big part of the game that hasn’t been well handled since Bo Pelini left. How high the special teams achieve, will dictate a lot of these swing games that Nebraska will be either ahead or behind by one score. It doesn’t hurt that Nebraska brings back a likely pro at punter. Buschini wasn’t healthy most of last season, and still was successful. If he is healthy this year, it gives Nebraska a big weapon for changing field position and locking teams into the 80-yard field or longer to score. Those odds favor any team, and hopefully this year, Buschini earns all-conference honors.
Matt Rhule…In college coaching, Matt Rhule seems to be a savant, resurrecting two moribund programs in Temple and Baylor, making them conference contenders within three years at both places. Nebraska isn’t where those programs where when he started out, but it certainly isn’t where Bo Pelini left it either. Nebraska is 5-22 under Scott Frost in one score games. That will get you fired. Matt Rhule has a plan to flip that script. If he can do that, Nebraska shouldn’t take three years to get back into bowl game contention every year. The overall goal, however, is to get to a point where Nebraska competes for a Big Ten title or participates in the new playoff setup. Hiring Rhule says that Nebraska thinks it can make that leap back into national contention. Let’s face it, in the new Big Ten, if you finish in the top four, you have a shot at the playoffs.
Score Prediction and Season Prediction: Nebraska 24, Minnesota 20
I’m going against the grain a bit here. Most people think the Gophers are going to beat Nebraska probably by one score, or maybe more. I happen to think that is to Nebraska’s advantage. I think that Matt Rhule has installed his culture in such as short time, and that veteran players are dying for someone competent to lead them, that the hunger is there for this team to win 6, 7, or even 8 games. To hit that mark, Nebraska needs to beat Minnesota. I think they will. Minnesota has an upgrade at quarterback with Athan Kaliakmanis, but they are replacing the best running back P.J. Fleck has had at Minnesota and for a change, they aren’t bringing their entire offensive line back to block. As good as the quarterback is, I think Nebraska has enough veterans on defense to keep Minnesota’s offense in check. I think Nebraska gets this win and they go on to win at least 7 games this year. Optimism runs high in Lincoln, lets go see what reality is and GBR!!
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