Nebraska needs a break. Not time away from football, but to catch a break in general. They finally get that this week with their first home game of 2023. Northern Illinois rolls into Lincoln for a night game, and Matt Rhule’s debut in Lincoln. (Predictions are at the end if you don’t want to read the rest!)
Let’s face it, the first two weeks seemed like a forever grind on the road. Dropping a game at Minnesota when victory was in hand and then coming apart at the seams in Boulder in the second half, the Huskers feel like they are a beat down franchise.
As new coaches go at Nebraska, Matt Rhule has been more Scott Frost and Mike Riley, rather than Bo Pelini and Frank Solich.
I’m not saying Rhule is like Frost and Riley in any other aspect, other than the cycle of losses to start his career. In fact, Rhule has been anything but like Frost and Riley in a couple of aspects. Riley lost on a Hail Mary to BYU in his home opener in Lincoln. Scott Frost came out of the gates in Lincoln with a cancelled game due to lighting (ominous) and then rolled off six straight losses in his first season. Rhule didn’t get to start his career in Lincoln, and I don’t foresee losing his first half dozen games (although if that were to happen, I think the state of Nebraska might implode).
Another reason Rhule has not been like his previous two predecessors, is that he has assembled a defense worthy of the Blackshirts. Whatever the shortcoming of the offense has been, and there have been many, the defense has come to play. Tied for the lead nationally with 11 sacks after two games and having shut down two Power Five conference offenses in each game’s first half, the Blackshirts have given Nebraska every opportunity to win both games.
Special teams looked great against Minnesota but regressed against Colorado. Something tells me that will be better at home this week.
That leads us to the problem. Offensively, the Cornhuskers have been a mess. Turnovers from quarterback Jeff Sims and the inability to sustain a consistent passing game have spelled disaster. Matt Rhule is on the hook to figure out how not to waste a possible top 5 Big Ten defense in his first year. Right now, we don’t have the answers, but Coach Rhule is paid 5.5 million dollars this season to figure it out.
I think the biggest thing that needs to happen is Nebraska needs something to break wide open. They need a confidence builder, be it a blocked kick, a long touchdown pass, or big touchdown runs from the running back position and a sustained lead. Anything to take pressure off the quarterback.
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If Nebraska can get that, and start building momentum, this team could be back in bowl contention by November. If not, this season will be the seventh straight, were the Huskers seemed talented enough, but couldn’t catch the break that snowballs into a winning season.
ON WITH THE REWIND…
Last game prediction was Nebraska 31, Colorado 23. The actual score was Colorado 36, Nebraska 14. This game was a second half disaster that had a late kick start to disaster status right before the half. The Blackshirts were pitching a shutout, and they had the Buffs on the run in the first half. And just like that, Nebraska turns the ball over. And over. And over and then the route was on. A game that was closer than anyone had any idea in the first 20 minutes, quickly gave way to one that wasn’t close at all. It was like half the team showed up to play for Colorado. Nebraska won’t win many games with that strategy.
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Quick Notes:
Heinrich Haarberg…Jeff Sims left Boulder with a high ankle sprain. In the process Haarberg got his first taste of NCAA football at quarterback. This week Haarberg took most of the snaps in practice and is likely going to start against Northern Illinois. It may be a blessing for Sims to get a break and not play his first game in Lincoln this week. Sims has been downright awful in the passing game and the turnovers have cost Nebraska at least one win and made any chance of another a moot point. If Nebraska can use Haarberg’s athleticism in the running game and try to make easy throws for him in the passing game and lean on Huskies with the running backs, Haarberg should be successful. In fact, if HH doesn’t turn the ball over, it will be a vast improvement from the prior two weeks.
Gabe Ervin Jr..…Ervin Jr. looked like he was starting to get the feel of the running game in Boulder before the turnovers started flooding the Huskers out of the game. The problem is, we still have not seen Ervin Jr. break a big, long touchdown run. As teams start to key on the running game, it will be imperative for Ervin Jr., Rahmir Johnson, and Anthony Grant to provide some explosive plays. That needs to start now, because the Big Ten West is not a world beater division this year and it’s the only way Nebraska will reach a bowl game.
Billy Kemp…Kemp finally got on the receiving stats page in Boulder. He showed that he has great hands and nifty explosion when he caught the ball. Kemp is a big-time play maker, but Nebraska needs to find more ways to get him the ball. It didn’t work well last week because of mishandling of snaps, but the Huskers putting a player in motion pre snap seemed to allow Kemp the opportunity to work the underneath area of the field. Nebraska needs to continue to do that and let Kemp cook. He provides a needed spark every time he catches a pass.
Cam Lenhardt…Lenhardt has been everything you could have asked for so far from a freshman. He started at Minnesota and had two sacks against Colorado. For a freshman, against two teams that should be bowl eligible by years end, he has been a breath of fresh air, injecting more life into a defense that suddenly can get to the quarterback.
Mikai Gbayor…Gbayor (pronounced Bayor) made a great special teams tackle at Minnesota and then played outstanding against Colorado. Gbayor was injured when he arrived at Nebraska and didn’t play his first two seasons in Lincoln. He has found his stride under this new coaching staff and new linebacker coach Rob Dvoracek. Adding Gbayor to a veteran linebacker room leads me to believe that this defensive staff is going to develop talent at an outstanding rate.
Score Prediction: Nebraska 23, Northern Illinois 17
No matter what happens this week, Nebraska likely is starting a quarterback with little experience playing an entire game of college football. On top of that, Heinrich Haarberg is a much better runner than passer at this point in his career. I still think Nebraska will win, but I have a feeling we will be seeing a lot of freshman kicker Tristan Alvano this weekend. I think Nebraska will limit the turnovers to a couple, and this week will cause three of their own. The game won’t be in doubt but will likely be closer than we all want. The Huskies score a late touchdown to cover, but Lincoln still celebrates Matt Rhule’s first win in Lincoln. Cheers to Husker Nation and GBR!!
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